The airlines are hoping for a second bailout this year.
Correction. The airlines are pleading for a second bailout.
CEOs of the major carriers have been actively involved in courting a new round of grants and loans, to the point where United CEO Scott Kirby has made some housecalls to Washington D.C. to personally lobby some lawmakers.
And it's not just the head honchos. Six different union leaders representing airline workers sent a letter to the House of Representatives and the Senate asking for a payroll protection package worth $32 billion.
This would be on top of the $50 billion in grants and loans the industry received in March from the CARES Act stimulus package.
The question is, should airlines get a second round of funding?
Not this time.
Five months ago? Yes, absolutely. The effects from the coronavirus pandemic absolutely crushed the airlines, to the point where in April some flights were leaving with just a single passenger onboard and capacity was off 95 percent from where it was a year ago at the time.
Airlines needed an infusion of cash to continue to pay employees and help keep the economy going, with the stipulation that carriers would not lay off any workers until October 1.
But this time is different.
This time, there likely will be no such stipulation on the airlines regarding employment and if they do get a bailout the major carriers are going to lay off people anyway. Frankly, if airlines needed another bailout specifically for payroll it would be for far less than $32 billion.
They have repeatedly said they will get smaller, and they will. This is regardless of any new payroll protection. Airlines will downsize, and any good economist will tell you that if such moves are inevitable - and it appears they are with the industry - then better to do it now instead of delaying the expected ripple effect to the overall economy.
There's also a perception issue here. For nine years, up until the virus hit earlier this year, the airlines were cash cows making money hand over fist, charging up to $200 for change fees, penalties for bags over 50 pounds, fees for seat selection and more. And the bulk of it was spent on stock buybacks. Southwest Airlines spent $2 billion on buybacks last year, for instance, and American Airlines spent $1.1 billion.
People remember.
Of course, we also are in an election year so anything can happen. The stipulation on no job cuts ends on October 1; 33 days later is the presidential election. Anything could happen in between.
Nobody wants to leave a major industry like aviation short-handed. Nobody wants to see more people fired and furloughed. But airlines are slowly creeping back toward full capacity, getting to about 27 percent full. Not nearly ideal, but better than the five percent of just a few months ago.
The airlines will be fine. It will take some time, particularly until a vaccine is created and international travel can reopen again. But they will get there.
That's why, this time, it's a hard no on a second bailout.
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